Translate the article into Russian in writing. Crunch time is approaching for Britain's labour market
Heating up
Crunch time is approaching for Britain's labour market. Figures released today show that unemployment held steady at 5.5% in the three months to April, as the pace of job creation slowed. With joblessness now just half a percentage point above the Bank of England's estimate of its equilibrium, Britain's jobs boom, which has seen employment rise by 2m in five years, may be nearing its end.
That means growth in demand is beginning to show up in wage rises, rather than new jobs. Regular pay, excluding bonuses, is now growing at 2.7% annually in nominal terms - easily the fastest rate of growth since February 2009. Thanks to near-zero inflation, workers are enjoying their juiciest real pay rises since November 2007.
The key uncertainty is the outlook for productivity, which remains below its pre-crisis peak. Data on productivity are intermittent, but the latest reading showed output per hour worked growing at a dismal 0.3% annually. Wage rises are only sustainable if they reflect increased value-added by workers, rather than zero-sum competition between firms for workers. And competition for workers is heating up: after a long slump the number of openings per jobseeker is nearly back at pre-crisis levels. If recent pay growth is only the result of labour-market tightening, the bank may soon feel the need to stop the party (despite the current low inflation, which most observers continue to believe is a temporary blip induced by a one-off fall in the oil price).
The difficulty is that productivity growth is near-impossible to forecast. In the early days of the crisis the bank expressed confidence that weak productivity reflected firms sitting tight and holding on to idle workers rather than firing them, and that once demand returned, those workers would put their shoulder to the wheel again. But when the economy did pick up, this did not much happen. Instead firms went on a hiring spree. Since then, the bank has appeared less confident that its actions affect productivity, hinting that it is a supply-side issue, and is therefore unaffected by monetary policy.
Yet it could still be that weak productivity is linked to the demand side. One reason for the stagnation is capital-labour substitution: it has been so cheap to hire workers in Britain that firms have preferred to bring in new workers than invest in productivity-boosting machinery and technology. As strong demand and a tight labour market puts upward pressure on pay, this process could go into reverse. Firms will have a stronger incentive to invest and get productivity up than to hire workers at greater cost.
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However, if this does not happen - and productivity continues to stagnate - Britons will feel the pain. The bank will be forced to raise rates to see off wage-driven inflation, and in doing so snuff out the recovery in real wages, just as mortgages get more expensive. And growth will stagnate, too, except insofar as the population grows.
Many employed Britons still want to work more hours. That might provide some additional slack and keep a lid on inflationary wage growth for a while. But the bigger constraint on inflation is probably fiscal policy.
The Economist, June 17th, 2015
USEFUL TERMS AND EXPRESSIONS
· crunchtime – решающий момент, горячая пора
· equilibrium – равновесие, сбалансированное состояние, сбалансированность
· intermittent – нерегулярный, с перебоями, кратковременный
· mortgage – ипотека / ипотечный кредит
· slack – застой, вялый экономический рост, вялое состояние (рынка)
labourslack-избытокрабочейсилы
CONSOLIDATION
Exercise № 18.
Translate the sentences into Russian.
1. The Bank Credit Analyst, a Canadian research firm, estimates that America accounted for only 20% of global growth in 1995-2002, while China's share was 25%.
2. The recession accounts for the slow retail business.
3. The decline in mining was largely expected to have been over and this quarter was supposed to have seen some revival but that has not happened.
4. They had to account for all the money that had gone missing.
5. Exports of goods and services in the fourth quarter fell at an annual rate of 12% in real terms, while imports fell by only 3%.
6. Businesses appear to be growing more confident and increasing their hiring.
7. The UK economy contracted by less than thought in the second quarter, shrinking by 0.4%, the Office for National Statistics says.
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8. The number of claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, hitting its lowest level since July.
9. Despite the apparent strength of the US labour market, Fed policymakers are in cautious mode and are not expected to raise interest rates in April.
10. If the new figure of 2.9% turns out to be right, the UK will be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 major developed nations this year.
11. In recent years, China's status — like its economy — has continued to rise as the economies in America and Europe have struggled.
12. A rise in the minimum wage leads to a shift within the industry, from the labour intensive model to the capital intensive production methods..
13. Apple’s stock may have fallen back below $700 a share from iPhone sales, but Google’s stock just hit a new all-time high.
14. On a global level, prices for consumer electronics continue to fall, which is affecting total estimated industry sales figures.
15. It remains to be seen whether this strengthening of demand will feed through to more pricing power, which remains weak due to the existence of spare capacity and high unemployment.
16. Record-high eurozone unemployment and continued manufacturing weakness could force the European Central Bank to lower rates later this week, according to Ken Wattret, economist at BNP Paribas.
17. If growth hit a decade low of 5% in the previous financial year, things seem to have worsened in the current financial year.
18. It’s not yet clear how big that financial hit might be or how many card users were affected.
19. The output of Chinese aluminium has sent global prices plunging, hurting rival.
20. The yen tends to strengthen whenever investors worry about the world’s path.
VOCABULARY CHECK
Exercise № 19
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