Modeling of life expectancy in the countries of the world in 2011
Relationship of life expectancy at birth with gross national income per capita in the countries of the world – model 1 - is shown on the graph:
Model 1:
LE=15,6 + 6,1×Ln(GNI) (1)
R2=0,69
LE - Life expectancy at birth (years)
GNI - Gross national income per capita (PPP int. $)
Model 2:
LE=17,7 + 6,2×Ln(GNI) + 0,6×TEH – 0,3×AC – 0,1×PS (2)
R2=0,81
LE - Life expectancy at birth (years)
GNI - Gross national income per capita (PPP int. $)
TEH - Total expenditure on health as % of gross domestic product
AC- Alcohol consumption among adults aged ≥ 15 years (litres of pure alcohol per person per year)
PS - Prevalence of smoking any tobacco product among adult males aged ≥ 15 years (%)
Graph for model 2:
Data 2011 from WHO World Heals Statistics 2013 , life expectancy, real and model 2
| Country | Gross national income per capita (PPP int. $) | Total expenditure on health as % of gross domestic product | Alcohol consumption among adults aged ≥ 15 years (litres of pure alcohol per person per year) | Prevalence of smoking any tobacco product among adult males aged ≥ 15 years (%) | Life expectancy at birth years | ||||
| Real | Model2 | Real – Model2 | |||||||
| Albania | 8820 | 6 | 7,3 | 60 | 74 | 69,6 | 4,4 | ||
| Argentina | 17130 | 8,3 | 9,4 | 32 | 76 | 77,2 | -1,2 | ||
| Armenia | 6100 | 4,5 | 13,7 | 51 | 71 | 65,3 | 5,7 | ||
| Australia | 38110 | 9 | 10,2 | 22 | 82 | 83,4 | -1,4 | ||
| Austria | 42050 | 11 | 12,4 | 47 | 81 | 82,0 | -1,0 | ||
| Azerbaijan | 8960 | 5,3 | 13,3 | 41 | 71 | 69,3 | 1,7 | ||
| Bangladesh | 1940 | 3,7 | 0,2 | 46 | 70 | 62,3 | 7,7 | ||
| Belarus | 14460 | 5,6 | 18,9 | 49 | 71 | 70,0 | 1,0 | ||
| Belgium | 39190 | 10,5 | 10,4 | 30 | 80 | 83,6 | -3,6 | ||
| Belize | 6090 | 5,8 | 5,9 | 23
| 74 | 71,3 | 2,7 | ||
| Benin | 1620 | 4,3 | 2,1 | 15 | 57 | 64,1 | -7,1 | ||
| Bolivia (Plurinational State of) | 4890 | 5,5 | 5,8 | 42 | 67 | 67,8 | -0,8 | ||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 9190 | 10,2 | 9,6 | 47 | 76 | 72,9 | 3,1 | ||
| Brazil | 11420 | 9 | 10,1 | 22 | 74 | 75,9 | -1,9 | ||
| Bulgaria | 14160 | 7,6 | 11,4 | 48 | 74 | 73,4 | 0,6 | ||
| Burkina Faso | 1300 | 7,4 | 7,3 | 18 | 56 | 62,7 | -6,7 | ||
| Cabo Verde | 3980 | 2,3 | 5 | 14 | 72 | 67,7 | 4,3 | ||
| Cambodia | 2230 | 6 | 4,7 | 42 | 65 | 63,6 | 1,4 | ||
| Cameroon | 2330 | 5,1 | 7,9 | 14 | 53 | 65,2 | -12,2 | ||
| Canada | 39660 | 11,4 | 10,2 | 24 | 82 | 84,9 | -2,9 | ||
| Chad | 1360 | 4 | 4,4 | 22 | 51 | 61,4 | -10,4 | ||
| Chile | 16330 | 7,4 | 8,8 | 38 | 79 | 76,0 | 3,0 | ||
| China | 8390 | 5 | 5,6 | 51 | 76 | 70,1 | 5,9 | ||
| Comoros | 1110 | 5,3 | 0,3 | 24 | 62 | 62,0 | 0,0 | ||
| Congo | 3240 | 2,3 | 4,5 | 10 | 58 | 67,0 | -9,0 | ||
| Costa Rica | 11860 | 10,3 | 5,8 | 24 | 79 | 78,0 | 1,0 | ||
| Côte d'Ivoire | 1710 | 6,2 | 6,5 | 17 | 56 | 64,0 | -8,0 | ||
| Croatia | 18760 | 7,8 | 15 | 36 | 77 | 75,4 | 1,6 | ||
| Czech Republic | 24370 | 7,5 | 16,5 | 43 | 78 | 75,7 | 2,3 | ||
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 340 | 7,5 | 3,4 | 10 | 49 | 56,4 | -7,4 | ||
| Denmark | 41900 | 11,1 | 12 | 30 | 79 | 83,9 | -4,9 | ||
| Dominica
| 13000 | 5,9 | 8,7 | 11 | 74 | 76,4 | -2,4 | ||
| Dominican Republic | 9420 | 5,5 | 6,3 | 17 | 73 | 74,3 | -1,3 | ||
| Egypt | 6120 | 4,7 | 0,3 | 40 | 73 | 70,6 | 2,4 | ||
| Eritrea | 580 | 2,9 | 1,6 | 10 | 61 | 57,5 | 3,5 | ||
| Estonia | 20850 | 6,3 | 17,2 | 46 | 76 | 73,5 | 2,5 | ||
| Ethiopia | 1110 | 4,8 | 4,1 | 8 | 60 | 62,1 | -2,1 | ||
| Fiji | 4610 | 4,2 | 2,8 | 18 | 70 | 70,0 | 0,0 | ||
| Finland | 37670 | 9 | 13,1 | 28 | 81 | 81,8 | -0,8 | ||
| France | 35910 | 11,7 | 12,5 | 36 | 82 | 82,5 | -0,5 | ||
| Gabon | 13740 | 3,5 | 9,5 | 19 | 62 | 74,2 | -12,2 | ||
| Gambia | 1750 | 4,4 | 3,6 | 31 | 58 | 62,6 | -4,6 | ||
| Georgia | 5350 | 10,2 | 6,7 | 57 | 72 | 69,4 | 2,6 | ||
| Germany | 40230 | 11,5 | 12,1 | 33 | 81 | 83,5 | -2,5 | ||
| Ghana | 1810 | 5,2 | 3,1 | 11 | 64 | 65,4 | -1,4 | ||
| Greece | 25100 | 10,8 | 11 | 63 | 81 | 77,5 | 3,5 | ||
| Guatemala | 4760 | 6,9 | 7,1 | 22 | 69 | 70,1 | -1,1 | ||
| Guinea | 1020 | 6,2 | 0,8 | 25 | 55 | 61,7 | -6,7 | ||
| Hungary | 20310 | 7,8 | 16,1 | 43 | 75 | 74,9 | 0,1 | ||
| Iceland | 31020 | 9,3 | 7,4 | 27 | 82 | 82,6 | -0,6 | ||
| India | 3590 | 3,7 | 2,7 | 26 | 65 | 67,4 | -2,4 | ||
| Indonesia | 4500 | 2,8 | 0,6 | 61 | 69 | 65,4 | 3,6 | ||
| Iraq | 3750 | 8,5 | 0,5 | 31 | 69 | 70,7 | -1,7 | ||
| Israel | 27110 | 7,7 | 2,5
| 29 | 82 | 82,1 | -0,1 | ||
| Italy | 32400 | 9,5 | 9,7 | 33 | 82 | 81,7 | 0,3 | ||
| Japan | 35330 | 9,2 | 7,8 | 42 | 83 | 81,7 | 1,3 | ||
| Jordan | 5930 | 8,3 | 0,7 | 47 | 74 | 71,7 | 2,3 | ||
| Kazakhstan | 11250 | 4,3 | 11,1 | 40 | 67 | 70,9 | -3,9 | ||
| Kenya | 1710 | 4,4 | 3,9 | 26 | 60 | 62,8 | -2,8 | ||
| Kiribati | 3300 | 10,7 | 2,7 | 71 | 67 | 66,5 | 0,5 | ||
| Kyrgyzstan | 2180 | 6,7 | 4,7 | 45 | 69 | 63,6 | 5,4 | ||
| Lao People's Democratic Republic | 2580 | 2,6 | 7 | 51 | 68 | 60,9 | 7,1 | ||
| Latvia | 17700 | 6,7 | 13,5 | 50 | 74 | 73,4 | 0,6 | ||
| Lebanon | 14470 | 6,2 | 2,3 | 46 | 74 | 75,6 | -1,6 | ||
| Liberia | 540 | 16,4 | 5,1 | 14 | 59 | 63,7 | -4,7 | ||
| Lithuania | 19640 | 7 | 16,3 | 50 | 74 | 73,4 | 0,6 | ||
| Malawi | 870 | 8,4 | 1,4 | 26 | 58 | 61,8 | -3,8 | ||
| Malaysia | 15650 | 4,4 | 0,9 | 50 | 74 | 75,1 | -1,1 | ||
| Mali | 1040 | 6,5 | 1 | 28 | 51 | 61,7 | -10,7 | ||
| Mauritania | 2400 | 6,1 | 0,1 | 29 | 59 | 66,8 | -7,8 | ||
| Mauritius | 14330 | 6,2 | 3,5 | 31 | 74 | 76,7 | -2,7 | ||
| Mexico | 15390 | 6,3 | 8,6 | 24 | 75 | 76,4 | -1,4 | ||
| Micronesia (Federated States of) | 3580 | 13,6 | 5,3 | 30 | 69 | 72,1 | -3,1 | ||
| Mongolia | 4290 | 5,5 | 3,4 | 48 | 68 | 67,1 | 0,9 | ||
| Morocco | 4880 | 5,4 | 1,2 | 33 | 72 | 70,0 | 2,0 | ||
| Mozambique | 970
| 6,3 | 2,3 | 18 | 53 | 61,7 | -8,7 | ||
| Namibia | 6560 | 5,5 | 11,5 | 30 | 65 | 69,2 | -4,2 | ||
| Nepal | 1260 | 5,1 | 2,4 | 36 | 68 | 60,8 | 7,2 | ||
| Netherlands | 43140 | 12,1 | 9,8 | 31 | 81 | 85,2 | -4,2 | ||
| Niger | 720 | 4,8 | 0,3 | 9 | 56 | 60,5 | -4,5 | ||
| Nigeria | 2290 | 5,4 | 12,7 | 10 | 53 | 64,2 | -11,2 | ||
| Norway | 61460 | 9,3 | 8,4 | 31 | 81 | 86,2 | -5,2 | ||
| Pakistan | 2870 | 1 | 0,1 | 34 | 67 | 64,3 | 2,7 | ||
| Palau | 11080 | 11,5 | 9,9 | 37 | 72 | 75,8 | -3,8 | ||
| Panama | 14510 | 8,7 | 7,3 | 17 | 77 | 78,6 | -1,6 | ||
| Papua New Guinea | 2570 | 4,1 | 3,6 | 58 | 63 | 62,1 | 0,9 | ||
| Paraguay | 5390 | 9,6 | 7,9 | 30 | 75 | 71,5 | 3,5 | ||
| Philippines | 4140 | 4,1 | 6,1 | 47 | 69 | 65,4 | 3,6 | ||
| Poland | 20430 | 7 | 14,4 | 36 | 76 | 75,6 | 0,4 | ||
| Portugal | 24440 | 10,7 | 13,9 | 32 | 80 | 79,5 | 0,5 | ||
| Republic of Korea | 30370 | 7,1 | 14,8 | 49 | 81 | 76,7 | 4,3 | ||
| Republic of Moldova | 3640 | 11,7 | 23 | 43 | 71 | 64,5 | 6,5 | ||
| Romania | 15120 | 5,9 | 16,2 | 46 | 74 | 71,6 | 2,4 | ||
| Russian Federation | 20560 | 6,5 | 16,2 | 59 | 69 | 72,5 | -3,5 | ||
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | 16470 | 4,7 | 10,6 | 12 | 74 | 76,5 | -2,5 | ||
| Saint Lucia | 11220 | 7,7 | 12,1 | 28 | 75 | 73,8 | 1,2 | ||
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 10440 | 4,7 | 5 | 18 | 74 | 74,7 | -0,7 | ||
| Samoa | 4270 | 6,3 | 4,5 | 58 | 73 | 66,3 | 6,7 | ||
| Sao Tome and Principe | 2080 | 7,5 | 8,5 | 9 | 63 | 66,2 | -3,2 | ||
| Saudi Arabia | 24700 | 4 | 0,3 | 24 | 75 | 80,5 | -5,5 | ||
| Senegal | 1940 | 5,8 | 0,5 | 16 | 61 | 66,5 | -5,5 | ||
| Serbia | 11540 | 10,4 | 12,2 | 38 | 74 | 74,6 | -0,6 | ||
| Seychelles | 25140 | 3,3 | 12,1 | 24 | 74 | 76,6 | -2,6 | ||
| Sierra Leone | 840 | 20,8 | 9,5 | 39 | 47 | 65,3 | -18,3 | ||
| Singapore | 59380 | 4,5 | 1,5 | 35 | 82 | 84,7 | -2,7 | ||
| Slovakia | 22130 | 9 | 13,3 | 39 | 76 | 77,4 | -1,4 | ||
| Slovenia | 26510 | 9 | 14,9 | 30 | 80 | 78,9 | 1,1 | ||
| Solomon Islands | 2350 | 7,4 | 1,4 | 46 | 70 | 65,3 | 4,7 | ||
| South Africa | 10710 | 8,7 | 10,2 | 24 | 58 | 75,1 | -17,1 | ||
| Spain | 31400 | 9,6 | 11,8 | 36 | 82 | 80,7 | 1,3 | ||
| Sri Lanka | 5520 | 3,5 | 0,8 | 27 | 75 | 70,4 | 4,6 | ||
| Sudan | 2120 | 7,2 | 2,6 | 24 | 62 | 66,4 | -4,4 | ||
| Swaziland | 5930 | 7,8 | 5,1 | 16 | 50 | 73,2 | -23,2 | ||
| Switzerland | 52570 | 10,9 | 11,4 | 31 | 83 | 85,3 | -2,3 | ||
| Thailand | 8360 | 3,9 | 7,1 | 45 | 74 | 69,5 | 4,5 | ||
| Tonga | 5000 | 5 | 3,9 | 44 | 72 | 68,0 | 4,0 | ||
| Tunisia | 9030 | 5,7 | 1,1 | 58 | 76 | 71,6 | 4,4 | ||
| Turkey | 16940 | 6,7 | 3 | 47 | 76 | 76,6 | -0,6 | ||
| Uganda | 1310 | 9,2 | 16,4 | 16 | 56 | 61,3 | -5,3 | ||
| Ukraine | 7040 | 7,8 | 17,5 | 50 | 71 | 67,2 | 3,8 | ||
| United Arab Emirates | 47890 | 3,7 | 0,5 | 19 | 76 | 84,8 | -8,8 | ||
| United Kingdom | 36010 | 9,6 | 13,2 | 25 | 80 | 82,2 | -2,2 | ||
| United Republic of Tanzania | 1500 | 7,2 | 7,9 | 21 | 59 | 63,0 | -4,0 | ||
| United States of America | 48820 | 17,6 | 9,7 | 33 | 79 | 89,1 | -10,1 | ||
| Uruguay | 14640 | 8,1 | 9 | 31 | 77 | 76,4 | 0,6 | ||
| Uzbekistan | 3420 | 5,6 | 3,6 | 22 | 68 | 68,3 | -0,3 | ||
| Vanuatu | 4330 | 5,2 | 1 | 43 | 72 | 68,2 | 3,8 | ||
| Viet Nam | 3250 | 6,8 | 3,9 | 48 | 75 | 66,0 | 9,0 | ||
| Yemen | 2170 | 5,6 | 0,2 | 35 | 64 | 65,2 | -1,2 | ||
| Zambia | 1490 | 6 | 3,6 | 24 | 55 | 63,2 | -8,2 | ||
Life expectancy is more than 5 years less than the model2 in countries: Swaziland, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Gabon, Cameroon, Nigeria, Mali, Chad, United States of America, Congo, United Arab Emirates, Mozambique, Zambia, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Benin, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, Norway.
These are mainly African countries and oil and gas producers.
The following model is more suitable for Africa:
Model 3:
LE=17,6 + 6,2×Ln(GNI) + 0,6×TEH – 0,3×AC – 0,1×PS –0,0015×PHIV/AIDS (3)
R2=0,89
LE - Life expectancy at birth (years)
GNI - Gross national income per capita (PPP int. $)
TEH - Total expenditure on health as % of gross domestic product
AC- Alcohol consumption among adults aged ≥ 15 years (litres of pure alcohol per person per year)
PS - Prevalence of smoking any tobacco product among adult males aged ≥ 15 years (%)
PHIV/AIDS - Prevalence (per 100 000 population) HIV/AIDS
Inclusion in the model HIV/AIDS improves results, as can be seen from the graph.
Life expectancy is more than 5 years longer than the model2, in countries: Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Nepal, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Samoa, Republic of Moldova, China, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan. These are mainly Asian countries and former republics of the Soviet Union.
Life expectancy plus minus 1 year from the model2 in the countries: Belarus, Costa Rica, Papua New Guinea, Mongolia, Uruguay, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Portugal, Kiribati, Poland, Italy, Hungary, Comoros, Fiji, Israel, Uzbekistan, France, Serbia, Iceland, Turkey, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Finland, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Austria. Here are countries from different regions of the world, but more European ones. For the WHO European Region R2=0,91.
Thus, life expectancy is associated with income, expenditure on health, alcohol consumption, smoking, the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, and income is the main determinant.
References
Дитон, А. Великий побег: Здоровье, богатство и истоки неравенства [Текст] / Ангус Дитон; пер. с англ. А. Гуськова. — М.: Изд-во Института Гайдара; Фонд «Либеральная Миссия», 2016. — 368 с.
Angus Deaton, The Great Escape. Health, Wealth and the Origins of Inequality (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2013) 360 p.
Deaton A 2003. Health, inequality, and economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, 41:113-158.
Deaton A 2004. Health in an age of globalization. Brookings Trade Forum, 83-130.
World Heals Statistics 2012. WHO. 2012.
World Heals Statistics 2013. WHO. 2013.
World Heals Statistics 2014. WHO. 2014.
World Heals Statistics 2015. WHO. 2015.
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