A Permanent Military Presence in Eastern Europe

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U.S. basing structures in Europe harken back to a time when Denmark, West Germany, and Greece represented the front lines of freedom. The security situation in Europe has changed, and the U.S. should account for this shift by establishing a permanent military presence in allied nations further east, including Poland and the Baltic states.

The 2019 National Defense Authorization Act requires the Secretaries of Defense and State to submit a report on the “feasibility and advisability of permanently stationing U.S. forces in the Republic of Poland”⁶

^{John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, Public Law 115–232, Section 1280, August 31, 2018, https://www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr5515/BILLS-115hr5515enr.pdf (accessed January 9, 2019).}

by March 1, 2019. The U.S. has stationed rotational forces in Poland, and serves as a framework nation for NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in that country. Permanently based forces provide considerable advantages over rotational forces.⁷

^{Daniel J. Kochis and Thomas W. Spoehr, “It’s Time to Move US Forces Back to Europe,” Defense One, September 13, 2017, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/09/its-time-move-us-forces-back-europe/140950/ (accessed January 9, 2019).}

In addition, a robust, permanent presence displays the U.S.’s long-term resolve to live up to its NATO treaty commitments.

In addition to Poland, the U.S. should also consider a permanent presence in the Baltic states, potentially as a component of a broader NATO shift from Baltic Air Policing toward Baltic Air Defense.⁸

^{Luke Coffey and Daniel Kochis, “Time for the Baltic Air Policing Mission to Become the Baltic Air Defense Mission,” Heritage Foundation Issue Brief No. 4769, October 2, 2017, https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/time-the-baltic-air-policing-mission-become-the-baltic-air-defense-mission.}

Even a small permanent presence will symbolize U.S. commitment to the region. The Trump Administration should consider options for a permanent deployment in both the Baltic states and Poland in 2019.

Maintaining Involvement in the Balkans

The Western Balkans is a region of Europe with unfinished business. Ethnic, religious, and cultural differences, along with historical grievances retain the potential to set off renewed hostilities and violence. Furthermore, the challenges posed by the destabilizing influence of Russia, rising Chinese interest and investment in the region, pockets of Islamist extremism, high unemployment, and lack of economic opportunity threaten to ensnare the Balkans in a permanent purgatorial geopolitical quicksand.

The U.S. cannot afford to take its eye off the ball in the Balkans;⁹

^{Daniel Kochis, “A Roadmap for Strengthened Transatlantic Pathways in the Western Balkans,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3286, March 16, 2018, https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/roadmap-strengthened-transatlantic-pathways-the-western-balkans.}

rather it should continue to implement a comprehensive strategy.¹⁰

^Ibid.

Concrete proposals the U.S. should seek to advance in 2019 include support for Macedonia’s accession to NATO, extension of the Visa Waiver Program to Croatia, and preventing a proposed land-swap agreement between Kosovo and Serbia.¹¹

^{Luke Coffey, “The U.S. Should Not Support a Land Swap Between Kosovo and Serbia,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 4905, September 25, 2018, https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/the-us-should-not-support-land-swap-between-kosovo-and-serbia.}

Focusing on Ukraine in this Critical Year

Ukraine will hold presidential elections on March 31 and parliamentary elections on October 27. In November, the U.S. announced further assistance to help counter Russian election meddling.¹²

^{News release, “Joint Statement on U.S.–Ukraine Strategic Partnership,” U.S. Department of State, November 16, 2018, https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/11/287421.htm (accessed January 9, 2019).}

In the east, Ukraine continues to fight an ongoing war with Russian forces. On November 25, Russian FSB border patrol boats rammed and fired on three Ukrainian coast guard vessels near the Kerch Strait. Russia continues to hold 24 Ukrainian sailors and three vessels captive.¹³

^{“Moscow Rejects French, German Appeal to Release Ukrainian Sailors,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 29, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/merkel-putin-germany-russia-detained-ukrainian-soldiers-syria-kurds/29682464.html (accessed January 9, 2019).}

The U.S. should implement policies designed to improve Ukraine’s maritime capabilities,¹⁴

^{Luke Coffey and Alexis Mrachek, “Improving Ukraine’s Maritime Capability: Next Steps for the U.S.,” Heritage Foundation Issue Brief No. 4926, November 28, 2018, https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/improving-ukraines-maritime-capability-next-steps-the-us.}

while continuing to call publicly for the release of Ukrainian service members and vessels held by Russia. The U.S. should also send a high-level representative to meet with Ukraine’s new president in the spring, advocating for continued reforms, including judicial reform, and for policies of economic liberalization, which will lead to greater prosperity and by extension less opportunity for corruption.

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