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Managing the US-China-Russia triangle
Three powers stand out as the leading political and military players in the international system during the initial decades of the 21st century: the United States, Russia, and China. A revitalized Japan, a rising India and the European Union might also join those ranks, but that result is far from certain. For the moment, relations between Washington, Moscow and Beijing are of critical importance. How that «strategic triangle» is managed will determine whether the world avoids major war. At the present time, there is reason for cautious optimism, but there are also a few warning signals of potential trouble.
A delicate US-China relationship
The relationship between the United States and China has been turbulent in recent years. The US bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war in May 1999 brought relations to a crisis point, as did the collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter plane in April 2001. The increasingly important trade and investment relationship between the two countries eased the tensionshowever.
The initial characterization of China as a «strategic competitor» by officials in the American administration also produced a wariness on both sides. The administration dropped that characterization after the April spy-plane incident, however, and relations seemed to improve steadily thereafter. Ties were strengthened further after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when China diplomatically supported the US war against terrorism and the United States came to regard China as an ally in that effort.
The Chinese government actually worked with the United States to gain cooperation from Beijing's longtime ally, Pakistan, in the war against Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network and the Taliban government in Afghanistan — despite the possibility of a long-term US military presence in Pakistan. And when the United States announced its withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in late 2001, Beijing's protests were muted, even though a US missile defense system would erode the credibility of China's small nuclear deterrent.
It is difficult to speculate about the motives for policy initiatives in a secretive, authoritarian political system like that of China. Nevertheless, several factors appeared to account for Beijing's unusual restraint.
First, the Chinese Communist Party elite wanted to avoid any international controversy.
Second, China's leaders desperately needed to preserve and expand the economic relationship with the United States. The global economic slowdown, and especially the deepening recession in East Asia, has made the US market more crucial than ever. China felt that it could not let quarrels over other matters jeopardize access to that market.
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Finally, Chinese leaders were increasingly alarmed at the signs of a growing rapprochement between the United States and China's traditional rival. India. Beijing worries (with good reason) about the possible emergence of a US-Indian «strategic partnership» directed against China. The Chinese response to the warming relations between Washington and New Delhi has been to try to improve China's own relations with both capitals.
The turbulent US relationship with Russia
The relationship between Russia and the United States under the Bush administration had a very difficult start. Just weeks after Bush took office, the United States expelled more than 50 Russian diplomats on charges of espionage. Moscow responded by expelling an equal number of US diplomats. Such issues as the further expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty also fueled tensions.
Gradually, though, the relationship seemed to improve. Moscow's reaction to the September 2001 terrorist attacks appeared to create an opportunity for improvement. Not only did the Russian president denounce the attacks, but he gave the United States substantive assistance in a variety of ways. Most crucially, Russia made it clear to the governments of the Central Asian republics that it did not object to a temporary US military presence in the region to wage the war in Afghanistan. Without Russia's approval, the United States would have found it far more difficult to gain the cooperation of those governments.
Russia helped the United States in other ways. For example, Moscow resisted the demand of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut its oil output to prevent a fall of global oil prices. As the world's second-largest oil producer, Russia had a crucial role to play. Instead of responding favorably to OPEC's requests, Moscow maintained production at high levels — a position favored by the United States.
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How did the US administration reward Russia for its cooperation? One of the administration's first initiatives was to announce America's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, which Moscow had long regarded as the centerpiece of its relationship with the United States on arms-control issues.
As if the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty weren't enough, US officials let it be known that the United States intended to maintain a long-term military presence in the Central Asian republics. This was a classic deceit, and Russian officials made it clear that they were not happy about Washington's action. Russia clearly prefers a close, cooperative relationship with the United States and is not willing to close the door on that possibility.
But if Washington continues to take unfair advantage, Russia can and probably will pursue other options. Serious long-term damage will occur if the Russian people begin to see the United States as a hostile power that always attempts to take advantage of their country.
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