Weather forecasting
Forecast of surface pressures five days
into the future for the north Pacific,
North America, and north Atlantic ocean.
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve.
Once an all human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition, forecast models are now used to determine future conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome.
There is a variety of end users to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to commodity traders within stock markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and the wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.
III. Answer the questions:
1. What is meteorology?
2. What are meteorological phenomena?
3. What meteorological phenomena do you know?
4. Where is the majority of Earth’s observed weather located?
5. Where does meteorology have application?
6. Does the rotation of the Earth affect airflow?
7. Who is Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis?
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8. What is weather forecasting?
9. How are weather forecasts made?
10. What is the difference between prior and current weather forecasting?
11. Who are the end users to weather forecasts?
IV. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Prove your opinion.
1. Meteorological phenomena are temperature, pressure, water vapor, and the gradients and their interactions.
2. The majority of Earth’s observed weather is located in the ionosphere.
3. Meteorology, climatology, atmospheric physics, and atmospheric chemistry are sub-disciplines of the atmospheric sciences.
4. Human beings still do not understand the kinematics of how exactly the rotation of the Earth affects airflow.
5. Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis was the first meteorologist.
6. Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location.
7. People have never tried to predict the weather.
8. The atmosphere has a stable nature, so it is easy for people to forecast the weather.
9. Meteorologists do not need any special facilities to make their forecasts.
10. There is a variety of end users to weather forecasts.
V. Explain in English:
Pressure gradient force, deflecting force, isobar, Coriolis force (effect).
VI. What new information have you learned from this article? Have you got anything to add? Discuss it into groups.
Earth’s atmosphere
I. Learn active vocabulary:
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