Table 13 Macro-economic and Financial Indicators in the Major Advanced Economies
| Country | Indicator | 2016Q2 | 2016Q3 | 2016Q4 | 2017Q1 | 2017Q2 | |||||||||||
| Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | |||
| United States | Real GDP Growth (annualized quarterly rate, %) | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.6 | |||||||||||
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | ||
| CPI (YOY, %) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | ||
| DJ Industrial Average (end of the period) | 17774 | 17787 | 17930 | 18432 | 18401 | 18308 | 18161 | 19124 | 19763 | 19864 | 20812 | 20663 | 20941 | 21009 | 21350 | ||
| Euro Area | Real GDP Growth (annualized quarterly rate, %) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | |||||||||||
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | ||
| HICP (YOY, %) | –0.2 | –0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||
| EURO STOXX 50 (end of the period) | 3028 | 3063 | 2865 | 2990 | 3023 | 3002 | 3055 | 3052 | 3291 | 3231 | 3320 | 3501 | 3560 | 3555 | 3442 | ||
| Japan | Real GDP Growth (annualized quarterly rate, %) | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | … | |||||||||||
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | ||
| CPI (YOY, %) | –0.3 | –0.5 | –0.4 | –0.4 | –0.5 | –0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| NIKKEI 225 (end of the period) | 16666 | 17235 | 15576 | 16569 | 16887 | 16450 | 17425 | 18308 | 19114 | 19041 | 19119 | 18909 | 19197 | 19651 | 20033 | ||
Sources: Statistical Bureaus and Central Banks of the Relevant Economies
Developments in global financial markets
The US dollar index dropped. The euro and the British pound appreciated sharply against the US dollar and the Japanese yen remained relatively stable, while exchange-rate movements in the emerging market economies were mixed. As of end-June, the US dollar index closed at 95.638, losing 4.89 percent from the end of March. The euro and the British pound stood at 1.1423 US dollars per euro and 1.3025 US dollars per pound, strengthening 7.27 percent and 7.83 percent respectively from the end of March. The exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was 112.35 yen per dollar, dipping 0.86 percent compared with end-March.
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Among the emerging market currencies, the Indian rupee, the Turkish lira, and the Mexican peso appreciated by 0.36 percent, 3.24 percent, and 3.30 percent respectively against the US dollar compared with end-March, whereas the Russian ruble and the Brazilian real depreciated 4.56 percent and 5.54 percent respectively against the US dollar.
Money-market rates continued to diverge throughout the world. The US dollar Libor went up slightly due to the interest-rate hike by the Fed. As of June 30, the 1-year dollar Libor was 1.7384 percent, an increase of 0.05 percentage point from the end of the last year. The Euribor continued to decline. As of June 30, the 1-year Euribor registered –0.156 percent, a decrease of 0.07 percentage point from the end of 2016.
The yields of government bonds in the major economies diverged moderately. As of June 30, the yields of 10-year US Treasuries and French government bonds closed at 2.302 percent and 0.817 percent, down 9.3 basis points (bps) and 14.6 bps respectively from the end of March. The yields of 10-year Japanese, German, and UK government bonds closed at 0.084 percent, 0.470 percent, and 1.259 percent, adding 1.3 bps, 14 bps, and 11.9 bps respectively. Among the emerging market economies, the yields of 10-year Russian, Indian, Mexican, and Turkish government bonds retreated 24 bps, 18.3 bps, 22.7 bps, and 37 bps respectively, whereas the yield of 10-year Brazilian government bonds went up 42 bps.
The performance of the stock markets in the major economies was mixed. As of June 30, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average, the German DAX, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 gained 3.32 percent, 0.10 percent, and 5.95 percent respectively over the end of March, whereas the euro area’s STOXX 50 and the UK FTSE 100 fell 1.69 percent and 0.14 percent respectively. Among the emerging market economies, the stock indices in Russia and India went up 10.13 percent and 4.39 percent respectively, whereas the stock index in Brazil was down 3.21 percent.
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Monetary policies in the major economies
The major advanced economies either began or prepared for monetary policy normalization. The US Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for the federal funds rate on March 15 and on June 14, each by 25 bps to the 1–1.25 percent range, while anticipating one more hike in 2017 and another three hikes in 2018. In addition, the minutes of the FOMC meeting in June shed light on the principles and plans of policy normalization, under which the FOMC intends to gradually reduce the Fed’s securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of the principal payments it receives from maturing securities, and payments will be reinvested only to the extent that they exceed gradually rising caps. For Treasury securities, the FOMC anticipates that the decreasing cap will be USD 6 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of USD 6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches USD 30 billion per month. For agency debt and mortgage-backed securities(MBS), the FOMC anticipates that the decreasing cap will initially be USD 4 billion per month butit will increase in steps of USD 4 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches USD 20 billion per month. The Fed indicated in its July monetary policy statement that the FOMC expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves generally as anticipated.
The ECB decided on March 9, April 27, and June 8 to keep interest rates on the main refinancing operations (MROs), the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility unchanged at 0 percent, 0.25 percent, and ‒0.40 percent respectively, and to maintain its EUR 60 billion monthly asset purchase program until December 2017, which might be extended further if necessary. The ECB explicitly stated that deflationary risks had abated, and it removed any reference to cutting rates from its monetary policy announcement.
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on January 31, March 16, April 27, and June 16 that it will continue its negative interest-rate policy and will maintain the current size of its asset purchases. In the meantime, it will continue to keep the yield of 10-year government bonds near zero through yield curve control. On April 11, Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the BOJ, at a meeting of the Japanese Diet provided details for the first time about exiting the quantitative easing, noting that the level of the interest rate and the size of the balance sheet will be the primary targets of its exit strategies.
The BOE decided on March 16 and June 15 to keep unchanged the benchmark rate at 0.25 percent, the size of its asset purchase schemeat GBP 435 billion, and corporate bond purchases at GBP 10 billion in an effort to meet its inflation target and to sustain employment and economic growth. In the face of rising inflation triggered by the weakening pound, the BOE indicated that it will continue to closely monitor economic developments and stand ready to respond to any changes in the economic outlook so as to ensure that inflation returns to the 2 percent target.
Monetary policies in the emerging market economies diverged slightly. On the one hand, to address issues such as currency depreciation, capital outflows, and inflationary pressures, the Bank of Mexico raised its benchmark rate on four occasions to 7.00 percent, namely, on February 9 by 50 bps, and on March 30, May 18, and June 22 each by 25 bps. On the other hand, some economies further eased their monetary policies to boost economic growth. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation cut its key rate by 25 bps, 50 bps, and 25 bps on March 24, April 28, and June 16 respectively to 9.00 percent. The Central Bank of Brazil cut its policy rate by 75 bps, 75 bps, 100 bps, and 100 bps on January 11, February 22, April 12, and May 31 respectively to 10.25 percent.
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