The Commodity Research Bureau
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Learn How to Research Commodities
Researching commodities is a very broad topic and there is no simple procedure that works for every commodity trader. In fact, do not expect to become an expert and sift through mounds of data when researching commodities. You just want enough information to make rational trading decisions.
The first thing you want to do is learn about individual commodities. You want to know where, when and how a particular commodity trades. You also want to know what news, reports, and events move the market. You can find a great summary of this information at the commodity profiles page.
There are many commodity research firms that publish commodity reports daily or weekly. This can often be a great place to get more in-depth research on commodities and also get market opinions from the commodity analyst or trader who writes the reports. I usually don’t take trade recommendations from the reports, but it is good to know what traders are thinking.
Many futures clearing firms provide proprietary reports for their clients. There are also some good newsletters that you can read daily. I often read the Hightower Report(especially for the grain and livestock commodities) and the Gartman Letter. There are also some good free reports you can find online. FuturesBuzz.com has a good selection of commodity reports from several analysts.
Commodity traders can also check the daily news before the open of the markets and after the close to give them an idea as to why a market is moving. Bloomberg offers good commodities news throughout the day.
When trading or investing in commodity markets, there are many levels of research to consider. A robust approach to gathering data on these markets always includes both a technical and a fundamental approach.
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Promotional merchandising
The annual cycle of merchandising differs between countries and even within them, particularly relating to cultural customs like holidays, and seasonal issues like climate and local sporting and recreation. Events such as Chinese festivals and Japanese festivals are incorporated in an annual cycle of shop decorations and merchandise promotion.
In the United States, the basic retail cycle begins in early January with merchandise for Valentine's Day, which is not until mid-February. Presidents' Day sales are held shortly thereafter. Following this, Easter is the major holiday, while springtime clothing and garden-related merchandise is already arriving at stores, often as early as mid-winter (toward the beginning of this section, St. Patrick's Day merchandise, including green items and products pertaining to Irish culture, is also promoted). Mother's Day and Father's Day are next, with graduation gifts (typically small consumer electronics like digital cameras) often being marketed as "dads and grads" in June (though most college semesters end in May; the grads portion usually refers to high school graduation, which ends one to two weeks after Father's Day in many U.S. states). Summer merchandise is next, including patriotic-themed products with the American flag, out by Memorial Day in preparation forIndependence Day (with Flag Day in between). By July, back-to-school is on the shelves and autumn merchandise is already arriving, and at some arts and craftsstores, Christmas decorations. (Often, a Christmas in July celebration is held around this time.) The back-to-school market is promoted heavily in August, when there are no holidays to promote. By September, particularly after Labor Day, summer merchandise is on final closeout and overstock of school supplies is marked-down some as well, and Halloween (and often even more of the Christmas) merchandise is appearing. As the Halloween decorations and costumes dwindle in October, Christmas is already being pushed on consumers, and by the day after Halloween retailers are going full-force with advertising, even though the "official" season doesn't start until the day after Thanksgiving. Christmas clearance sales begin even before Christmas at many retailers, though others begin on the day after Christmas and continue on at least until New Year's Day but sometimes as far out as February.
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The Commodity Research Bureau
The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) is an organization that tracks and reports on commodities prices. The organization has provided information to the financial industry since 1934, and it is widely followed by traders of bonds and commodities, along with economists interested in tracking market trends. Publications including projections of future prices are readily available to members of the public who are interested in the work of the Commodity Research Bureau.
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Commodity prices are an important economic indicator. Viewed on their own, they provide information about supply and demand of commodities and can offer clues to future manufacturing production and other economic topics of interest. The Commodity Research Bureau explores commodity values across a range of industries to get a general overall picture of trends.
Rises and falls in commodity prices can also be useful to monitor for information about the economy in general. During periods of inflation, commodity prices rise and bond values tend to fall. A spike in commodities will be accompanied with a drop in bonds, making statistics from the Commodities Research Bureau useful for bond traders, as well as people who track commodities. Commodity values can also provide information about political trends; for example, a rise in the price of cacao beans may be indicative of unrest in nations where cacao is grown, or a sudden spike in a foreign commodity might reflect diplomatic tensions making it hard move supplies.
Since its founding, the Commodity Research Bureau has been acquired by a number of different financial publications in a series of mergers. This reflects interest among many companies in buying up organizations focusing on generating, tracking, and discussing financial statistics. The records of this organization, including economic predictions on the basis of shifts in commodities prices, represent a valuable historic and economic resource, especially when viewed in tandem with historic records kept by the government and other agencies.
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